← Premier League 2022-23 · Mon, May 8, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 48% | 54% | 2.03 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 17% | 3.61 | fair |
| Southampton win | 25% | 29% | 3.93 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Nott'm Forest −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 60% | 1.75 | value: +5% |
| Over | 45% | 40% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Taiwo Awoniyi · Nott'm Forest |
| 21' | ⚽ | Taiwo Awoniyi · Nott'm Forest |
| 25' | ⚽ | Carlos Alcaraz · Southampton |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 51' | ⚽ | Lyanco · Southampton |
| 73' | ⚽ | Danilo Santos · Nott'm Forest |
| 78' | 🟨 | Renan Lodi · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 614.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1491.48 | 1452.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.58 | -21.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.60 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | — |
| league points | 30.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 28.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 9.21 | 8.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.08 | -0.92 |
| solidity v1 | -1.89 | -1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.58 | 25.75 |
| state index | -0.47 | -1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.23 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 226.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.32 | 2.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.77 |