← Premier League 2022-23 · Mon, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 36% | 33% | 2.72 | fair |
| Leicester win | 35% | 48% | 2.80 | value: +35% |
| Draw | 29% | 19% | 3.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Fulham +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 43% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 57% | 2.00 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Willian · Fulham |
| 18' | ⚽ | Carlos Vinícius · Fulham |
| 24' | 🟨 | Harvey Barnes · Leicester |
| 44' | ⚽ | Tom Cairney · Fulham |
| 51' | ⚽ | Tom Cairney · Fulham |
| 58' | 🟨 | James Maddison · Leicester |
| 59' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Leicester |
| 70' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Leicester |
| 70' | ⚽ | Willian · Fulham |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | James Maddison · Leicester |
| 89' | ⚽ |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| Harvey Barnes · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 676.00 | 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1794.33 | 1767.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.90 | -9.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 45.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 4.79 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.37 |
| solidity v1 | -0.33 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.70 | 26.47 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 142.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 2.23 |