← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 53% | 46% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 31% | 3.94 | value: +24% |
| Crystal Palace win | 22% | 23% | 4.53 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Tottenham −0.75 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 62% | 1.88 | value: +16% |
| Under | 48% | 38% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace |
| 69' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ben Davies · Tottenham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Clément Lenglet · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fraser Forster · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| coach days | 551.00 | 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1685.28 | 1595.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.47 | 24.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 54.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 0.30 |
| solidity v1 | -1.97 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.24 | 27.13 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 22.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.16 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.49 |