← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 46% | 60% | 2.11 | value: +27% |
| Bournemouth win | 27% | 20% | 3.62 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.67 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea +0.25 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Bournemouth +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 44% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 56% | 2.07 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Conor Gallagher · Chelsea |
| 15' | 🟨 | Mykhaylo Mudryk · Chelsea |
| 20' | 🟨 | N'Golo Kanté · Chelsea |
| 21' | ⚽ | Matías Viña · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 65' | 🟨 | Benoît Badiashile · Chelsea |
| 82' | ⚽ | Benoît Badiashile · Chelsea |
| 86' | ⚽ | João Félix · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 278.00 | 35.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1525.99 | 1617.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.73 | -44.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 39.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | -0.69 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 28.29 |
| state index | 0.36 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 141.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.17 |