← Premier League 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 30, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 63% | 70% | 1.54 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 20% | 12% | 4.98 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 17% | 17% | 5.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Tottenham −1 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 68% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 32% | 3.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Curtis Jones · Liverpool |
| 5' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · Liverpool |
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 40' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 52' | 🟨 | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · Liverpool |
| 77' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 81' | 🟨 | Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Milner · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Anfield |
| Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2229.00 | 545.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1812.52 | 1690.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.68 | -28.26 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 53.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 3.86 | 2.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.08 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 0.25 | -1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.60 | 28.21 |
| state index | 1.26 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.39 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 282.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |