← Premier League 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 30, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 76% | 78% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 6.41 | fair |
| Southampton win | 8% | 9% | 13.00 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −1.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Southampton −1.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 64% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 36% | 2.52 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Stuart Armstrong · Southampton |
| 4' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 41' | ⚽ | Stuart Armstrong · Southampton |
| 54' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
| 56' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker-Peters · Southampton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Roméo Lavia · Southampton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 79' | ⚽ (og) | Theo Walcott · Newcastle |
| 81' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days | 545.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1963.78 | 1669.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.11 | -22.57 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| league points | 62.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 2.76 | 2.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.17 | -0.60 |
| solidity v1 | -0.23 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.88 | 26.55 |
| state index | 1.65 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 452.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.28 | 0.66 |