← Premier League 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 30, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 75% | 78% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 6.36 | fair |
| Fulham win | 9% | 9% | 11.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City +1.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Fulham +1.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 61% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 39% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 15' | ⚽ | Carlos Vinícius · Fulham |
| 36' | ⚽ | Julián Alvarez · Man City |
| 70' | 🟨 | Kenny Tete · Fulham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jack Grealish · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Éderson · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 4 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days |
| 668.00 |
| 2494.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1542.06 | 1948.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.78 | 27.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 1.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| league points | 45.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 66.40 |
| rest days | 4.76 | 3.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 2.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 2.31 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | 1.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 28.30 | 28.54 |
| state index | -0.01 | 2.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 1.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 260.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 0.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 2.51 |