← Premier League 2022-23 · Thu, Apr 27, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Marriner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 53% | 68% | 1.84 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.73 | fair |
| Everton win | 21% | 13% | 4.71 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle +0.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Everton +0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 40% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 60% | 2.05 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
| 40' | 🟨 | Amadou Onana · Everton |
| 53' | 🟨 | Matt Targett · Newcastle |
| 72' | ⚽ | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 75' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
| 80' | ⚽ | Dwight McNeil · Everton |
| 81' | ⚽ | Jacob Murphy · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Neal Maupay · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 14 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 116.00 | 542.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1499.36 | 1741.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.72 | 39.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.00 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 2.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 28.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 5.20 | 4.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | 1.23 |
| solidity v1 | -1.16 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 27.51 |
| state index | -0.43 | 1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.58 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 192.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.53 |