← Premier League 2022-23 · Wed, Apr 26, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 58% | 72% | 1.68 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 24% | 13% | 4.17 | fair |
| Arsenal win | 18% | 16% | 5.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Arsenal −0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Kevin De Bruyne · Man City |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rúben Dias · Man City |
| 45' | ⚽ | John Stones · Man City |
| 54' | ⚽ | Kevin De Bruyne · Man City |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jack Grealish · Man City |
| 76' | 🟨 | Thomas Partey · Arsenal |
| 86' | ⚽ | Rob Holding · Arsenal |
| 88' | 🟨 | Rodri · Man City |
| 90' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 2490.00 | 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 4.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.55 |
| elo | 2148.59 | 2016.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.16 | -1.47 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 70.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 11.10 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.19 | 1.82 |
| solidity v1 | 1.62 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.33 | 25.25 |
| state index | 2.45 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.76 | 1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 256.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.27 | 2.42 |