← Premier League 2022-23 · Wed, Apr 26, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 60% | 67% | 1.62 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 23% | 14% | 4.37 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 18% | 19% | 5.83 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest +1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Brighton +1 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 60% | 1.78 | value: +7% |
| Under | 45% | 40% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Felipe · Nott'm Forest |
| 38' | ⚽ | Facundo Buonanotte · Brighton |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Pascal Groß · Nott'm Forest |
| 69' | ⚽ | Danilo Santos · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Keylor Navas · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 602.00 | 237.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1692.23 | 1903.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.39 | 17.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 1.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| league points | 27.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 30.40 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 4.19 | 11.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 20.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.04 | 1.91 |
| solidity v1 | -1.11 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 26.96 | 26.48 |
| state index | -0.61 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.55 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 242.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 2.42 |