← Premier League 2022-23 · Tue, Apr 25, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 41% | 47% | 2.42 | value: +14% |
| Leicester win | 32% | 23% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Leeds −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 52% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 48% | 2.36 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Luis Sinisterra · Leeds |
| 41' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Leeds |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rodrigo · Leeds |
| 52' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Leicester |
| 53' | 🟨 | Marc Roca · Leeds |
| 60' | 🟨 | Liam Cooper · Leeds |
| 67' | 🟨 | Youri Tielemans · Leicester |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 83.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1504.68 | 1569.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.74 | -27.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.68 |
| league points | 29.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 3.31 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | -0.52 |
| solidity v1 | -2.22 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.98 | 25.61 |
| state index | -0.89 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 131.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.43 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.23 |