← Premier League 2022-23 · Tue, Apr 25, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 42% | 32% | 2.34 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 36% | 3.05 | value: +11% |
| Crystal Palace win | 27% | 31% | 3.82 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 60% | 1.48 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 40% | 2.86 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (og) | Joachim Andersen · Wolves |
| 13' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 36' | 🟨 | Albert Sambi Lokonga · Crystal Palace |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace |
| 75' | 🟨 | Diego Costa · Wolves |
| 76' | 🟨 | José Sá · Wolves |
| 84' | 🟨 | Toti Gomes · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rúben Neves · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Johnstone · Crystal Palace |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Rúben Neves · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 175.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1557.42 | 1599.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.27 | 32.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| league points | 34.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 3.19 | 3.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | 0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -0.34 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.84 | 26.76 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 192.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 0.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.55 |