← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Liverpool win | 82% | 85% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 10% | 8.50 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 6% | 5% | 19.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Liverpool −2 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Nott'm Forest −2 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 68% | 64% | 1.42 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 36% | 3.00 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand