← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 40% | 34% | 2.45 | fair |
| Wolves win | 31% | 35% | 3.13 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Leicester −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 47% | 2.22 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 34' | 🟨 | José Sá · Wolves |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
| 42' | 🟨 | Toti Gomes · Wolves |
| 60' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Leicester |
| 65' | 🟨 | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 75' | ⚽ | Timothy Castagne · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 21.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1561.36 | 1565.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.85 | 4.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| league points | 25.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.41 |
| solidity v1 | -0.83 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.19 | 28.06 |
| state index | -0.88 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 66.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.14 |