← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 22, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 41% | 41% | 2.39 | fair |
| Leeds win | 31% | 36% | 3.11 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds −0.25 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Fulham −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 57% | 1.93 | value: +10% |
| Under | 49% | 43% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Fulham |
| 37' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie · Leeds |
| 58' | ⚽ | Harry Wilson · Fulham |
| 62' | 🟨 | Maximilian Wöber · Leeds |
| 67' | 🟨 | Liam Cooper · Leeds |
| 72' | ⚽ | Andreas Pereira · Fulham |
| 79' | ⚽ (og) | João Palhinha · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marc Roca · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 660.00 | 80.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1539.71 | 1512.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.11 | -7.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| league points | 42.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 4.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | -0.70 |
| solidity v1 | -1.49 | -2.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.61 | 25.34 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | -1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 271.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 2.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.30 |