← Premier League 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 79% | 83% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 7.26 | fair |
| Southampton win | 7% | 6% | 14.16 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −2 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Arsenal −2 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 40% | 2.52 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Carlos Alcaraz · Southampton |
| 14' | ⚽ | Theo Walcott · Southampton |
| 20' | ⚽ | Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal |
| 27' | 🟨 | Carlos Alcaraz · Southampton |
| 32' | 🟨 | Romain Perraud · Southampton |
| 42' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker-Peters · Southampton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Oleksandr Zinchenko · Arsenal |
| 66' | ⚽ | Duje Ćaleta-Car · Southampton |
| 76' | 🟨 | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 88' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Arsenal |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 25 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Ibrahima Diallo · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 110.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.22 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1836.35 | 1458.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.35 | -25.56 |
| eye test v1 | 1.13 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| league points | 74.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 5.25 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.39 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.57 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.42 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.81 | 24.52 |
| state index | 1.10 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 114.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.23 | 0.90 |