← Premier League 2022-23 · Mon, Apr 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 56% | 45% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 34% | 4.44 | value: +53% |
| Leeds win | 21% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool +0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Leeds +0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 37% | 2.76 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
| 39' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 42' | 🟨 | Fabinho · Liverpool |
| 47' | ⚽ | Luis Sinisterra · Leeds |
| 52' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
| 64' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 73' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | Darwin Núñez · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days |
| 75.00 |
| 2216.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1521.32 | 1793.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.78 | -10.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.12 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| league points | 29.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 8.25 | 8.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 0.83 |
| solidity v1 | -1.94 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.94 | 28.00 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 99.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.48 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.83 |