← Premier League 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 16, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 60% | 70% | 1.62 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 23% | 16% | 4.30 | fair |
| West Ham win | 17% | 15% | 5.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Arsenal +1 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Arsenal |
| 10' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Arsenal |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Saïd Benrahma · West Ham |
| 35' | 🟨 | Thomas Partey · Arsenal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gabriel Jesus · Arsenal |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 82' | 🟨 | Aaron Cresswell · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1232.00 |
| 105.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.33 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1645.27 | 1840.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.64 | 12.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 30.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 2.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 1.34 |
| solidity v1 | 0.23 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 28.27 | 25.80 |
| state index | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 8.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 2.16 |