← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 64% | 69% | 1.52 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 21% | 17% | 4.52 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 15% | 14% | 6.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham −1 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Bournemouth −1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 38' | ⚽ | Matías Viña · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ryan Christie · Bournemouth |
| 51' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ivan Perisic · Tottenham |
| 88' | ⚽ | Arnaut Danjuma · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dango Ouattara · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| coach days | 530.00 | 257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1722.26 | 1498.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.64 | 21.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.80 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 53.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -0.40 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.12 | 27.61 |
| state index | 0.78 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 156.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.75 |