← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 36% | 38% | 2.75 | value: +5% |
| Southampton win | 33% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.17 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Southampton +0 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 61% | 1.61 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 39% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · Crystal Palace |
| 52' | 🟨 | Roméo Lavia · Southampton |
| 54' | ⚽ | Eberechi Eze · Crystal Palace |
| 68' | ⚽ | Eberechi Eze · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Armel Bella-Kotchap · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days |
| 73.00 |
| 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1470.47 | 1591.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.32 | 16.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 1.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 23.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -0.83 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.90 | 26.80 |
| state index | -0.66 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 106.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.55 |