← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 43% | 45% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.36 | fair |
| Fulham win | 28% | 31% | 3.55 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Fulham −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 56% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 44% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Harrison Reed · Fulham |
| 27' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 35' | ⚽ | Dwight McNeil · Everton |
| 51' | ⚽ | Harry Wilson · Fulham |
| 68' | ⚽ | Daniel James · Fulham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Demarai Gray · Everton |
| 80' | 🟨 | Vitaliy Mykolenko · Everton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tosin Adarabioyo · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bernd Leno · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 21 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 104.00 | 653.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1511.96 | 1522.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.06 | -34.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.30 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 27.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | 0.53 |
| solidity v1 | -1.19 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.36 | 29.30 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.95 | 1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 286.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.04 | 1.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 0.87 |