← Premier League 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 9, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 38% | 45% | 2.51 | value: +12% |
| Liverpool win | 35% | 37% | 2.80 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 18% | 3.71 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Liverpool +0 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 62% | 1.70 | value: +6% |
| Under | 43% | 38% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal |
| 23' | 🟨 | Benjamin White · Arsenal |
| 28' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Arsenal |
| 31' | 🟨 | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 41' | 🟨 | Trent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool |
| 41' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 42' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andy Robertson · Liverpool |
| 53' | 🟨 | Aaron Ramsdale · Arsenal |
| 55' | 🟨 | Fabinho · Liverpool |
| 84' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| venue | Anfield |
| Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 87' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2208.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 4.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| elo | 2003.99 | 2028.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.05 | 8.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 1.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 43.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 4.85 | 8.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 2.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | 1.73 |
| solidity v1 | 0.04 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 27.91 | 26.21 |
| state index | 1.41 | 1.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | 1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 284.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 2.27 |