← Premier League 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 9, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 47% | 40% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.53 | value: +18% |
| Crystal Palace win | 26% | 26% | 3.82 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Leeds −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 55% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 45% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Patrick Bamford · Leeds |
| 44' | 🟨 | Junior Firpo · Leeds |
| 45' | ⚽ | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 50' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 53' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 55' | ⚽ | Eberechi Eze · Crystal Palace |
| 69' | ⚽ | Odsonne Édouard · Crystal Palace |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 86' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 67.00 | 39.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1541.72 | 1571.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.52 | -12.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 1.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.80 |
| league points | 29.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 4.76 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | -0.51 |
| solidity v1 | -1.03 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.01 | 27.11 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 283.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.14 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 0.96 |