← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 8, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 77% | 82% | 1.26 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 15% | 9% | 6.50 | fair |
| Southampton win | 8% | 8% | 13.00 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +1.75 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Man City +1.75 | 48% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 57% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 43% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | John Stones · Man City |
| 45' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 56' | 🟨 | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 58' | ⚽ | Jack Grealish · Man City |
| 68' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 72' | ⚽ | Sékou Mara · Southampton |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Julián Alvarez · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 10 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days |
| 66.00 |
| 2472.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.75 |
| elo | 1473.66 | 1933.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.64 | 13.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 23.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 66.20 |
| rest days | 6.15 | 7.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 2.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.08 | 1.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.70 | 28.55 |
| state index | -0.24 | 1.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 291.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 0.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 2.26 |