← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 60% | 49% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.25 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 16% | 28% | 6.12 | value: +72% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Aston Villa −1 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 45% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 55% | 1.99 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Álex Moreno · Aston Villa |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jonjo Shelvey · Nott'm Forest |
| 48' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · Aston Villa |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ezri Konsa · Aston Villa |
| 85' | 🟨 | Taiwo Awoniyi · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Toffolo · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Orel Mangala · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 158.00 | 584.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.62 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1643.36 | 1489.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 51.15 | -21.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| league points | 44.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | -0.96 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.95 | 27.50 |
| state index | 0.99 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 69.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 0.97 |