← Premier League 2022-23 · Wed, Apr 5, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 42% | 47% | 2.30 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 30% | 18% | 3.33 | fair |
| West Ham win | 28% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Newcastle +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 45% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 55% | 2.35 | value: +30% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
| 13' | ⚽ | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 40' | ⚽ | Kurt Zouma · West Ham |
| 42' | 🟨 | Emerson Palmieri · West Ham |
| 46' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
| 52' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 82' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 88' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · West Ham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joelinton · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1221.00 |
| 520.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.37 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1652.63 | 1717.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.69 | 8.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| league points | 27.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 3.25 | 3.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | 0.52 |
| solidity v1 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.27 | 27.26 |
| state index | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 398.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 2.09 |