← Premier League 2022-23 · Tue, Apr 4, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Scott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 36% | 45% | 2.70 | value: +22% |
| Leicester win | 35% | 27% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Leicester +0 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 53% | 1.95 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 35' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Leicester |
| 54' | 🟨 | Timothy Castagne · Leicester |
| 64' | 🟨 | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · Leicester |
| 70' | 🟨 | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · Leicester |
| 70' | 🟥 | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · Leicester |
| 87' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · Aston Villa |
| 89' | 🟨 | Wout Faes · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 3.00 | 154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1588.25 | 1632.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.03 | 55.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| league points | 25.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | -0.24 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.18 | 28.01 |
| state index | -0.66 | 1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 51.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.86 |