← Premier League 2022-23 · Tue, Apr 4, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 58% | 44% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 35% | 4.00 | value: +41% |
| Nott'm Forest win | 18% | 20% | 5.50 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds −0.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Nott'm Forest −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 46% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 54% | 2.00 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Neco Williams · Nott'm Forest |
| 12' | ⚽ | Orel Mangala · Nott'm Forest |
| 20' | ⚽ | Jack Harrison · Leeds |
| 45' | ⚽ | Luis Sinisterra · Leeds |
| 65' | 🟨 | Brennan Johnson · Nott'm Forest |
| 84' | 🟨 | Felipe · Nott'm Forest |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cheikhou Kouyaté · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Crysencio Summerville · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 62.00 | 580.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1752.14 | 1715.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.05 | -28.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.54 |
| league points | 26.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | -0.71 |
| solidity v1 | -0.95 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.62 | 26.85 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 97.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.06 | 1.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 0.90 |