← Premier League 2022-23 · Mon, Apr 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 47% | 45% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.51 | value: +11% |
| Everton win | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Tottenham +0.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 51% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 49% | 2.20 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' | 🟥 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Everton |
| 60' | 🟨 | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Clément Lenglet · Tottenham |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 88' | 🟥 | Lucas Moura · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Michael Keane · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 92.00 | 518.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1725.18 | 1922.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.87 | 7.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.60 | 67.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| league points | 26.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 16.06 | 16.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | 0.72 |
| solidity v1 | -1.16 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.08 | 27.73 |
| state index | 0.36 | 1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.67 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 283.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.98 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.56 |