← Premier League 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 2, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Newcastle win | 41% | 44% | 2.35 | value: +4% |
| Man United win | 31% | 34% | 3.17 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.63 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Man United −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Newcastle −0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 52% | 53% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand