← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 41% | 37% | 2.41 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.16 | value: +3% |
| Nott'm Forest win | 28% | 30% | 3.44 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Wolves +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 59% | 1.56 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 41% | 2.56 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Nott'm Forest |
| 38' | ⚽ | Brennan Johnson · Nott'm Forest |
| 40' | 🟨 | Brennan Johnson · Nott'm Forest |
| 42' | 🟨 | Rúben Neves · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | João Moutinho · Wolves |
| 49' | 🟨 | Harry Toffolo · Nott'm Forest |
| 78' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Wolves |
| 83' | ⚽ | Daniel Podence · Wolves |
| 85' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Toti Gomes · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days |
| 577.00 |
| 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1497.77 | 1537.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.98 | -13.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 46.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 26.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 14.75 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 0.25 |
| solidity v1 | -1.55 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.42 | 27.73 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 77.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.26 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.22 |