← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 41% | 41% | 2.38 | fair |
| Leicester win | 30% | 25% | 3.27 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.39 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 57% | 1.80 | value: +3% |
| Over | 47% | 43% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Victor Kristiansen · Leicester |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
| 59' | ⚽ (og) | Daniel Iversen · Crystal Palace |
| 68' | 🟨 | Harry Souttar · Leicester |
| 81' | 🟨 | Eberechi Eze · Crystal Palace |
| 83' | 🟨 | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · Leicester |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 89' | 🟨 | Wilfred Ndidi · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 31 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days |
| 31.00 |
| 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1561.83 | 1597.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.21 | -39.57 |
| eye test v1 | -1.65 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | — |
| league points | 27.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | 0.08 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 26.29 |
| state index | -0.89 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 153.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.61 | 1.49 |