← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 60% | 54% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.34 | fair |
| Brentford win | 17% | 28% | 5.75 | value: +59% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Brighton −1 | 48% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 54% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 46% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Pontus Jansson · Brentford |
| 21' | ⚽ | Kaoru Mitoma · Brighton |
| 22' | ⚽ | Ivan Toney · Brentford |
| 28' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 49' | ⚽ | Ethan Pinnock · Brentford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Aaron Hickey · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexis Mac Allister · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexis Mac Allister · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 33 | Shots | 7 |
| 15 | On target | 5 |
| 14 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | The American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 212.00 | 1643.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1891.61 | 1864.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.52 | -2.28 |
| eye test v1 | 1.16 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| league points | 42.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 16.77 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.93 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 1.11 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.37 | 26.53 |
| state index | 1.39 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 71.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.18 | 1.54 |