← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 37% | 42% | 2.61 | value: +10% |
| Fulham win | 33% | 33% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth +0 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Fulham +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 50% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 50% | 2.24 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Andreas Pereira · Fulham |
| 50' | ⚽ | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 59' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Fulham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Bournemouth |
| 67' | 🟨 | Kenny Tete · Fulham |
| 79' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tom Cairney · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonee Robinson · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.87 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days |
| 243.00 |
| 639.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1484.26 | 1541.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.89 | 12.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 67.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.80 |
| league points | 24.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 20.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | -0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -1.91 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 28.10 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 139.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.28 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 0.95 |