← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 42% | 40% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.34 | fair |
| Leeds win | 29% | 35% | 3.43 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Wolves −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 59% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 41% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Matheus Nunes · Wolves |
| 6' | ⚽ | Jack Harrison · Leeds |
| 24' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Leeds |
| 37' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie · Leeds |
| 45' | 🟨 | Junior Firpo · Leeds |
| 49' | ⚽ | Luke Ayling · Leeds |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Wolves |
| 62' | ⚽ | Rasmus Kristensen · Leeds |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jonny Otto · Wolves |
| 73' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marc Roca · Leeds |
| 84' | 🟥 | Jonny Otto · Wolves |
| 87' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Illan Meslier · Leeds |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 137.00 | 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1769.08 | 1737.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.02 | -13.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.30 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 27.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | -0.35 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.99 | 25.64 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.05 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 137.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.19 |