← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 52% | 60% | 1.85 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 26% | 16% | 3.73 | fair |
| Southampton win | 21% | 23% | 4.62 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0.75 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Tottenham +0.75 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Pedro Porro · Tottenham |
| 46' | ⚽ | Che Adams · Southampton |
| 65' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 74' | ⚽ | Ivan Perisic · Tottenham |
| 77' | ⚽ | Theo Walcott · Southampton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Oliver Skipp · Tottenham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Kamaldeen Sulemana · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days |
| 45.00 |
| 502.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1472.85 | 1723.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.76 | -8.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 73.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 22.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 2.81 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | 0.59 |
| solidity v1 | 0.29 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.69 | 27.81 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 120.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.38 |