← Premier League 2022-23 · Fri, Mar 17, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 56% | 65% | 1.75 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.70 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 18% | 16% | 5.48 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest +0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Newcastle +0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 56% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Dennis · Nott'm Forest |
| 26' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Dennis · Nott'm Forest |
| 33' | 🟨 | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 45' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 59' | 🟨 | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Renan Lodi · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Keylor Navas · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonjo Shelvey · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days |
| 562.00 |
| 501.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1504.16 | 1695.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.94 | -23.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| league points | 26.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 5.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -1.28 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.57 | 27.60 |
| state index | -0.77 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 228.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.08 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.32 |