← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 45% | 36% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 38% | 3.38 | value: +28% |
| Crystal Palace win | 26% | 26% | 3.82 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 58% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 42% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ (og) | Joachim Andersen · Aston Villa |
| 57' | 🟨 | Cheick Doucouré · Crystal Palace |
| 62' | 🟨 | Cheick Doucouré · Crystal Palace |
| 62' | 🟥 | Cheick Doucouré · Crystal Palace |
| 66' | 🟨 | Álex Moreno · Aston Villa |
| 69' | 🟨 | Eberechi Eze · Crystal Palace |
| 80' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 82' | 🟨 | Naouirou Ahamada · Crystal Palace |
| 87' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 3 |
| 1 | On target | 0 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 123.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1592.20 | 1583.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.62 | 7.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -1.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 31.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -1.09 |
| solidity v1 | -1.49 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.55 | 26.78 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 174.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.30 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 0.91 |