← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 25, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 56% | 57% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.12 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 20% | 24% | 5.08 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool +0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Crystal Palace +0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 51% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 49% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Naby Keïta · Liverpool |
| 26' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Clyne · Crystal Palace |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jordan Henderson · Liverpool |
| 77' | 🟨 | Fabinho · Liverpool |
| 82' | 🟨 | Joël Matip · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andy Robertson · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 604.00 | 2165.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1794.41 | 2015.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.71 | -37.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 26.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.20 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | 0.90 |
| solidity v1 | -0.54 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 27.73 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 298.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.89 |