← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 25, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 71% | 77% | 1.36 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 19% | 11% | 5.25 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 10% | 12% | 10.10 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City +1.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Bournemouth +1.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 61% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 39% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Julián Alvarez · Man City |
| 29' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 45' | ⚽ | Phil Foden · Man City |
| 47' | 🟨 | Dango Ouattara · Bournemouth |
| 51' | ⚽ (og) | Chris Mepham · Man City |
| 58' | 🟨 | Chris Mepham · Bournemouth |
| 60' | 🟨 | Kalvin Phillips · Man City |
| 63' | 🟨 | Manuel Akanji · Man City |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jefferson Lerma · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 13 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 208.00 | 2430.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1482.59 | 1911.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.94 | -1.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| league points | 21.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.38 | 1.40 |
| solidity v1 | -0.44 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.59 | 28.04 |
| state index | -0.21 | 1.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.27 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 306.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 2.33 |