← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 49% | 47% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.78 | fair |
| Southampton win | 25% | 27% | 4.03 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Leeds −0.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 51% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 49% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds |
| 58' | 🟨 | Stuart Armstrong · Southampton |
| 77' | ⚽ | Junior Firpo · Leeds |
| 83' | 🟨 | Patrick Bamford · Leeds |
| 85' | 🟨 | Roméo Lavia · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Diallo · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Armel Bella-Kotchap · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1733.09 | 1685.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.89 | 5.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -0.76 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.18 | 25.04 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 319.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 0.75 |