← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 53% | 43% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.62 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 20% | 31% | 4.98 | value: +55% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves −0.5 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Bournemouth −0.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 51% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 49% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Philip Billing · Bournemouth |
| 49' | ⚽ | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 70' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 72' | 🟨 | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Wolves |
| 73' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 74' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 86' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 109.00 | 201.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1564.44 | 1468.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.40 | -9.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 23.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -1.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.38 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.91 | 26.46 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 207.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.97 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.39 |