← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 67% | 62% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 26% | 4.68 | value: +20% |
| Southampton win | 12% | 12% | 8.24 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Southampton −1.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 43% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 57% | 2.15 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Roméo Lavia · Southampton |
| 4' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · Chelsea |
| 16' | 🟨 | Armel Bella-Kotchap · Southampton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stuart Armstrong · Southampton |
| 45' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sékou Mara · Southampton |
| 87' | 🟨 | Kepa Arrizabalaga · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateo Kovačić · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Romain Perraud · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 24 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 170.00 | 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1908.76 | 1668.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.19 | -23.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| league points | 31.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.45 | -0.39 |
| solidity v1 | 0.80 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 24.10 |
| state index | 0.89 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 105.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 0.80 |