← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 11, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 59% | 63% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 15% | 4.05 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 17% | 22% | 6.10 | value: +37% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth +1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Newcastle +1 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 42% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 58% | 1.98 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 45' | ⚽ | Miguel Almirón · Newcastle |
| 60' | 🟨 | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 74' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 87' | 🟨 | Sven Botman · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 194.00 | 467.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1463.37 | 1714.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.74 | -3.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 66.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.85 |
| league points | 17.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | -1.18 | 1.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.08 | 27.98 |
| state index | -0.96 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 471.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.21 | 0.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.13 |