← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 38% | 49% | 2.50 | value: +22% |
| Southampton win | 31% | 29% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 22% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Wolves +0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 56% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 44% | 2.40 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Mario Lemina · Wolves |
| 23' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Wolves |
| 24' | ⚽ | Carlos Alcaraz · Southampton |
| 27' | 🟨 | Mario Lemina · Wolves |
| 27' | 🟥 | Mario Lemina · Wolves |
| 30' | 🟨 | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Wolves |
| 35' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ainsley Maitland-Niles · Southampton |
| 72' | ⚽ (og) | Jan Bednarek · Wolves |
| 87' | ⚽ | João Gomes · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days |
| 10.00 |
| 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1462.13 | 1555.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.91 | 34.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | 0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.08 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.64 | 27.78 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 194.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 2.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.62 | 1.41 |