← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 54% | 48% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.79 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 20% | 25% | 5.15 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace +0.75 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Brighton +0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 43% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 57% | 2.15 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Alexis Mac Allister · Brighton |
| 27' | 🟨 | Will Hughes · Crystal Palace |
| 59' | 🟨 | Albert Sambi Lokonga · Crystal Palace |
| 63' | ⚽ | Solly March · Brighton |
| 69' | ⚽ | James Tomkins · Crystal Palace |
| 82' | 🟨 | Cheick Doucouré · Crystal Palace |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tyrick Mitchell · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 590.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1789.48 | 1891.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.92 | 30.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 24.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | 1.83 |
| solidity v1 | -0.70 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.59 | 26.80 |
| state index | -0.01 | 1.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | 1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 59.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 2.32 |