← Premier League 2022-23 · Thu, Jan 12, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 48% | 40% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +22% |
| Fulham win | 24% | 25% | 4.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Chelsea +0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 60% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 40% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Antonee Robinson · Fulham |
| 14' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Fulham |
| 25' | ⚽ | Willian · Fulham |
| 36' | 🟨 | Trevoh Chalobah · Chelsea |
| 47' | ⚽ | Kalidou Koulibaly · Chelsea |
| 58' | 🟥 | João Félix · Chelsea |
| 62' | 🟨 | Lewis Hall · Chelsea |
| 73' | ⚽ | Carlos Vinícius · Fulham |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mason Mount · Chelsea |
| 84' | 🟨 | Tosin Adarabioyo · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 560.00 | 133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.00 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1520.42 | 1705.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.27 | -24.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 39.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.83 |
| league points | 28.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 9.01 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 28.99 | 28.29 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 1.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| travel km | — | 2.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |