← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Dec 31, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 52% | 48% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.77 | value: +6% |
| Brighton win | 22% | 23% | 4.47 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal +0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Brighton +0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 52% | 2.01 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 39' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Arsenal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Billy Gilmour · Brighton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Thomas Partey · Arsenal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal |
| 47' | ⚽ | Edward Nketiah · Arsenal |
| 54' | 🟨 | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 57' | 🟨 | Solly March · Brighton |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kaoru Mitoma · Brighton |
| 71' | ⚽ | Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal |
| 77' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | The American Express Community Stadium |
| Evan Ferguson · Brighton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jeremy Sarmiento · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 121.00 | 790.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1647.50 | 1819.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.75 | 29.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.59 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| league points | 24.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 5.10 | 4.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 2.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | 1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.87 | 24.77 |
| state index | 0.58 | 1.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 77.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |