← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Nov 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 59% | 70% | 1.65 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.42 | fair |
| Leeds win | 19% | 13% | 5.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds −1 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Tottenham −1 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 62% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 38% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville · Leeds |
| 25' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 43' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Leeds |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marc Roca · Leeds |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ben Davies · Tottenham |
| 57' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Tyler Adams · Leeds |
| 76' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Leeds |
| 81' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham |
| 83' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham |
| 87' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| 87' | 🟥 | Tyler Adams · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 376.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.06 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1738.10 | 1539.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.26 | -3.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 26.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.09 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 24.84 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 262.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |