← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 59% | 55% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.22 | value: +24% |
| Bournemouth win | 18% | 16% | 5.52 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Leeds −1 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Rodrigo · Leeds |
| 7' | ⚽ | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 19' | ⚽ | Philip Billing · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Bournemouth |
| 48' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 52' | 🟨 | Chris Mepham · Bournemouth |
| 60' | ⚽ | Sam Greenwood · Leeds |
| 61' | 🟨 | Rasmus Kristensen · Leeds |
| 68' | ⚽ | Liam Cooper · Leeds |
| 84' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 13 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| Joe Gelhardt · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 277.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1532.36 | 1486.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.04 | -11.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 6.84 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.14 | 26.14 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 338.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |